WP3: Biological forecasting

What do we plan to do?

The overarching aim of WP3 is to forecast the effect of future climate scenarios on the fisheries and aquaculture production and distribution of the most important and less resilient exploitable species in marine and freshwater systems across Europe in 2050.

How will we do it?

We will apply numerical models, i.e. models based on equations that describe the environment and the biology of the target species. The complexity of the numerical models used will be in parallel to the complexity of the case studies. For the case studies of the aquaculture sector, we will use an assortment of individual-based models (IBM) grounded on the dynamic energy budget theory (DEB) up-scaled to the population level. For the freshwater fisheries case studies we will combine temperature-dependent growth with size-structured population models. Finally, for the more complex case of the marine fisheries case studies we will use physical-biogeochemical coupled models combined with ecosystem models.

Who will do it?

Below is a table indicating the case study, target species, numerical model used and institutions in charge