WP4: Identify risks and opportunities and develop early warning methodologies
Identification of risks and opportunities
The main objective of WP4 is to identify the risks of opportunities for fisheries and aquaculture producers arising from climate change. The identification of risks and opportunities will be based on the output from the biological forecasting models developed in WP3. WP4 also works closely with stakeholders in the different countries to determine what they see as threats and opportunities. ClimeFish works with three of the emissions scenarios that the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has developed.
Socio-economic analysis is also a core component of the risk assessment done in WP4. In order to determine the impacts of climate change for fisheries and aquaculture producers, it is important to look the effects for the operators and the communities they live in. WP4 will look at the total economic activity for each case, and quantify how this is influenced by climate change. For instance, what are the economic implications of a change in growth rates of fish, both wild and farmed? What does this mean for the operators? The methods that will be used will depend on each case study, but they will range from input-output analysis, cost-benefit analysis, resource rent analysis, partial cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria analysis and environmental and social cost-benefit analysis.
Classification of ecosystem services
WP4 will also classify ecosystem services with a particular focus on how they provision of food and feed. The work package will also look into the trade-offs between these provisioning services and cultural and regulating services in light of climate change.
Early warning system
WP4 will also develop an early warning system in order to ensure rapid response and adaption to the risks (and opportunities) posed by climate change for fisheries and aquaculture operators. The early warning system will be based on input from the biological models, as well as the result of the risk assessments, including the socio-economic analysis. The early warning system will serve as an easy to interpret tool for the relevant stakeholders.
List of deliverables:
• State of the art in valuating ecosystem services in relation to marine food provision: Report/journal manuscript
• Socio-economic assessment for case studies for a range of IPCC scenarios – Report
• Climate-related risks and opportunities of climate change for fisheries and aquaculture in Europe. Journal manuscript
• Early warning system for the quick adaptation to climate change in Europe